SupplyWolfSupplyWolf Market Pulse
Near-Term Move + Year-over-Year Reality
Demand firms up, fuel cools — but truckload rates keep climbing.
May data points to a real demand pickup: Cass shipments rose for a second straight month, ISM manufacturing reached its strongest level since May 2022, and Port of LA volume ran well above last year. Two big cost lines finally eased — diesel pulled back from its spring peak and warehousing costs dropped month over month. But truckload pricing jumped again and is now up about 21% from a year ago, and total freight spend keeps rising, so the cost-to-serve story is still very much alive.
Latest available public data as of June 22, 2026. Monthly freight and economic indicators are released with a lag.
The quick read
Demand is strengthening and some costs eased, but truckload pricing keeps climbing.
Demand is strengthening
Cass shipments rose for a second straight month, the ISM manufacturing index hit a multi-year high, and Port of LA volume stayed well above last year.
Some costs finally eased
Diesel pulled back from its spring peak, warehousing costs dropped, and manufacturing input-price growth slowed.
But truckload pricing keeps climbing
Truckload rates are up about 21% YoY and total freight spend keeps rising, so cost-to-serve is still the main watch item.
Eight numbers to watch
Latest available public data as of June 22, 2026. Monthly freight and economic indicators are released with a lag.
Freight Demand
Cass Freight Shipments
Shipments rose for a second straight month and are now nearly back to last year's level.
Why it matters
Broadest read on U.S. freight demand across truck, rail, and parcel. Sets the volume baseline behind every shipper's network plan.
Source: FRED / Cass Freight Index
Freight Spend
Cass Freight Expenditures
Freight spend jumped month over month and is well above last year.
Why it matters
Total dollars spent moving freight. Captures both rate and volume, so it shows the true cost-to-serve trend.
Source: FRED / Cass Freight Index
Truckload Pricing
Long-Distance Truckload PPI
Truckload pricing climbed again and is up about 21% versus last year.
Why it matters
Wholesale truckload rate trend. A leading signal for contract pricing the next time shippers go to bid.
Source: FRED / U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Warehousing
Warehousing & Storage PPI
Warehousing and storage costs dropped month over month but are still a touch above last year.
Why it matters
Wholesale storage cost trend. Drives 3PL contract renewals and the fixed-cost line in distribution budgets.
Source: FRED / U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fuel
U.S. On-Highway Diesel
Diesel cooled sharply from last month, but remains far above last year.
Why it matters
Largest variable cost in over-the-road trucking. Fuel surcharges flow through to shipper invoices weekly.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Manufacturing
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing accelerated to its strongest reading since May 2022 — a fifth straight month of expansion.
Why it matters
A reading above 50 signals expansion. Forward indicator of industrial freight demand and capital spending.
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Manufacturing Input Prices
ISM Prices Index
Input price pressure eased from April but remained elevated versus last year.
Why it matters
Tracks input-cost pressure manufacturers are absorbing. A leading signal for finished-goods inflation downstream.
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Port Activity
Port of LA Total TEUs
Container volume dipped from April but stayed well above last year, up 17% versus the same month a year ago.
Why it matters
Largest U.S. container gateway. Bellwether for import demand and the inland freight wave that follows.
Source: Port of Los Angeles
Demand improved again and is nearly back to last year's level.
Cass Freight Shipments index
Shipments rose for a second straight month; May 2026 was just below May 2025.
Demand is firming and has nearly closed the gap with last year.
Freight spend jumped again and is well above last year.
Cass Freight Expenditures index
Freight spend rose sharply month over month and is up 7.5% year over year.
Spend is climbing even as volume stays flat — cost-per-shipment keeps rising.
The core tension: nearly flat YoY freight volume, sharply higher YoY freight spend.
Cass YoY change, May 2026 vs May 2025
Volumes are about flat versus last year, but transportation spend is climbing sharply, widening the cost-to-serve gap.
Cost pressure is broad.
YoY change across freight cost indicators
Diesel is still the largest YoY increase, but truckload pricing, freight spend, and warehousing are all higher than last year too.
Transportation and storage cost indicators are higher than last year across multiple signals.
Diesel cooled sharply from last month, but remains far above last year.
U.S. On-Highway Diesel ($/gal)
Near-term
-10.3% MoM
$5.059/gal, down from $5.639 last month.
YoY (absolute)
+$1.488/gal
vs year ago
YoY (percent)
≈ +41.7%
Still far above last year.
Manufacturing accelerated, and input prices cooled a bit.
Manufacturing
ISM Manufacturing PMI
54.0, +1.3 pts MoM, +5.5 pts YoY. Strongest since May 2022.
Input Prices
ISM Prices Index
Input price pressure eased from April but remained elevated versus last year.
Manufacturing looks markedly healthier than last year, and the cost side cooled a little — though input prices remain elevated.
Port activity eased from April but stayed above last year.
Port of LA Total TEUs
Port volume eased from April but stayed well above last year, up 17% year over year.
Takeaways
What this means for supply chain teams
Demand is picking up
Shipments rose for a second month, manufacturing reached its highest level since May 2022, and port volume stayed above last year.
Some costs eased
Diesel pulled back from its spring peak and warehousing costs fell month over month.
Truckload pricing is the watch item
Truckload rates jumped again and are up about 21% from last year.
Freight spend keeps rising
Total freight spend is up 7.5% YoY even as demand improved and some cost indicators eased.
How to read this
Near-term changes show momentum. Year-over-year changes show whether the market is structurally better, worse, or more expensive than last year. Read them together.
So what: putting this into action
- Hunt for cost synergies in your tech stack. With cost-to-serve elevated year-over-year, consolidating overlapping TMS, WMS, and visibility tools is one of the fastest ways to take cost out. A quick stack assessment usually surfaces two to three overlaps teams didn't realize they had.
- Lean into automation where labor and warehousing are higher. Warehouse robotics, dock scheduling, and document automation continue to be the clearest wins when warehousing and labor costs keep climbing.
- Use AI to make better decisions on the data you already have. AI-assisted planning, exception management, and rate benchmarking help teams react faster to the kind of mixed signals shown above, without adding headcount.
- Close connectivity gaps across carriers, suppliers, and systems. Real-time visibility and EDI/API connectivity reduce the surprises that turn modest near-term momentum into missed service levels.
- Pressure-test the shortlist before you commit. Benchmark vendors, run a structured RFP, and pull in an independent expert before signing. SupplyWolf is built to make each of those steps faster.
You can get help with all of this on SupplyWolf to compare vetted solutions, assess your tech stack, run RFPs, and talk to supply chain experts, all in one place.
Why this uses latest available data
Many freight and economic indicators are released monthly and may be revised. This SupplyWolf Market Pulse uses the latest publicly available data as of June 22, 2026. The goal is to show both near-term momentum and year-over-year context, not real-time market conditions.
Sources
- · FRED / Cass Freight Index
- · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
- · U.S. Energy Information Administration
- · Institute for Supply Management
- · Port of Los Angeles
For informational purposes only. Data may be revised. SupplyWolf does not own the underlying publicly available data. Graphics are original SupplyWolf visualizations based on cited sources. Do not copy or screenshot outside charts. Use original SupplyWolf visuals built from cited numbers.
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SupplyWolf Market Pulse
Near-Term Move + Year-over-Year Reality
Demand firms up. Rates keep climbing.
Latest available public data as of June 22, 2026
Demand strengthened and some costs eased, but truckload pricing keeps climbing.
Shipments
+3.0%
MoM
-1.2%
YoY
Freight Spend
+5.3%
MoM
+7.5%
YoY
Truckload PPI
+5.5%
MoM
+21.1%
YoY
Warehousing
-4.5%
MoM
+3.0%
YoY
Diesel
-10.3%
MoM
+41.7%
YoY
ISM PMI
+1.3 pts
MoM
+5.5 pts
YoY
Bottom line
Demand is improving, but freight costs are still elevated.
SupplyWolfA second straight lift in shipments
Cass Freight Shipments
Why it matters
Shipments are a leading read on goods demand. A second monthly gain puts demand nearly back to last year's level.
SupplyWolfSpend jumped higher
Cass Freight Expenditures
Why it matters
Spend rising faster than volume means cost-per-shipment is climbing. That is a direct hit to freight budgets and vendor negotiations.
SupplyWolfThe core tension
- Shipments YoY-1.2%
- Freight Spend YoY+7.5%
Year-over-year, volume is nearly flat but spend keeps climbing.
Bottom line
Cost-to-serve is the story.
Volume is nearly flat while spend is up, so each shipment costs more. Build budgets and vendor terms off that gap, not the headline rate.
SupplyWolfCost pressure is broad
Near-term vs. year-over-year
Why it matters
Trucking, warehousing, and diesel are major cost inputs in moving goods. All three rising YoY mean cost-to-serve remains higher than last year.
SupplyWolfManufacturing accelerated, and prices cooled a bit
ISM Manufacturing PMI
54.0 · +1.3 pts MoM
+5.5 pts YoY
ISM Prices Index
82.1 · -2.5 pts MoM
+12.7 pts YoY
Why it matters
PMI above 50 means factories are growing. Input prices eased slightly but stay high, feeding finished-goods costs over the next one to two quarters.
SupplyWolfThe bottom line
Demand is strengthening
Shipments rose again, manufacturing hit its highest level since May 2022, and port volume held above last year.
Two cost signals eased
Diesel pulled back from its spring peak and warehousing fell month over month.
But pricing keeps climbing
Truckload pricing is up ~21% YoY and total freight spend is up 7.5% — cost-to-serve is still the story. Plan budgets around that.
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Sources: FRED, Cass Freight Index, BLS, EIA, ISM, Port of Los Angeles. Data may be revised.
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