SupplyWolfSupplyWolf Market Pulse
Near-Term Move + Year-over-Year Reality
Short-term bounce. Long-term cost pressure.
April data shows modest near-term improvement: Cass shipments ticked up, Port of LA volume rebounded, and manufacturing remained in expansion. But the year-over-year cost story is still elevated, with freight spend, truckload pricing, warehousing, diesel, and manufacturing input prices all higher than last year.
Latest available public data as of May 19, 2026. Monthly freight and economic indicators are released with a lag.
The quick read
Near-term momentum improved, but year-over-year cost pressure remains the main concern.
Near-term: Modestly improving
Cass shipments rose slightly, Port of LA volume rebounded, and manufacturing remained in expansion.
YoY: Costs higher
Freight spend, truckload pricing, warehousing, diesel, and manufacturing input prices are all higher than last year.
Bottom line: Cost-to-serve is elevated
Even with modest near-term improvement, year-over-year cost pressure remains the main concern for supply chain teams.
Eight numbers to watch
Latest available public data as of May 19, 2026. Monthly freight and economic indicators are released with a lag.
Freight Demand
Cass Freight Shipments
Shipments improved slightly month over month, but remain below last year.
Why it matters
Broadest read on U.S. freight demand across truck, rail, and parcel. Sets the volume baseline behind every shipper's network plan.
Source: FRED / Cass Freight Index
Freight Spend
Cass Freight Expenditures
Freight spend rose both month over month and year over year.
Why it matters
Total dollars spent moving freight. Captures both rate and volume, so it shows the true cost-to-serve trend.
Source: FRED / Cass Freight Index
Truckload Pricing
Long-Distance Truckload PPI
Truckload pricing rose sharply month over month and is materially higher than last year.
Why it matters
Wholesale truckload rate trend. A leading signal for contract pricing the next time shippers go to bid.
Source: FRED / U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Warehousing
Warehousing & Storage PPI
Warehousing and storage costs rose month over month and remain above last year.
Why it matters
Wholesale storage cost trend. Drives 3PL contract renewals and the fixed-cost line in distribution budgets.
Source: FRED / U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Fuel
U.S. On-Highway Diesel
Diesel was essentially flat week over week, but remains sharply higher than last year.
Why it matters
Largest variable cost in over-the-road trucking. Fuel surcharges flow through to shipper invoices weekly.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Manufacturing
ISM Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing held steady near term and improved versus last year.
Why it matters
A reading above 50 signals expansion. Forward indicator of industrial freight demand and capital spending.
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Manufacturing Input Prices
ISM Prices Index
Manufacturing input price pressure intensified recently and is higher than last year.
Why it matters
Tracks input-cost pressure manufacturers are absorbing. A leading signal for finished-goods inflation downstream.
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Port Activity
Port of LA Total TEUs
Port volume rebounded from March and was above last year.
Why it matters
Largest U.S. container gateway. Bellwether for import demand and the inland freight wave that follows.
Source: Port of Los Angeles
Demand improved slightly near term, but is still below last year.
Cass Freight Shipments index
Shipments improved slightly from March to April, but April 2026 shipment activity was still below April 2025.
Demand may be stabilizing, but it has not clearly recovered versus last year.
Freight spend rose near term and is higher YoY.
Cass Freight Expenditures index
Freight spend moved higher both month over month and year over year.
Even when shipment activity is still below last year, the cost side can keep moving higher.
The core tension: softer YoY freight volume, higher YoY freight spend.
Cass YoY change, April 2026 vs April 2025
Volumes remain softer YoY, but transportation spend continues to outpace activity levels, highlighting persistent cost-to-serve pressure.
Cost pressure is broad.
YoY change across freight cost indicators
Diesel is the largest YoY increase, but truckload, warehousing, and freight spend indicators are also higher than last year.
Transportation and storage cost indicators are higher than last year across multiple signals.
Diesel was flat this week, but fuel is still creating annual budget pressure. Prices remain sharply higher than last year.
U.S. On-Highway Diesel ($/gal)
Near-term
Flat WoW
$5.639/gal, essentially flat week over week.
YoY (absolute)
+$2.163/gal
vs year ago
YoY (percent)
≈ +62.2%
Sharply above last year.
Manufacturing held steady, but input prices jumped.
Manufacturing
ISM Manufacturing PMI
52.7, flat MoM, +4.0 pts YoY. Stronger than last year.
Input Prices
ISM Prices Index
84.6, +6.3 pts MoM, +14.8 pts YoY. Input price pressure intensified.
Manufacturing looks healthier than last year, but the cost environment is also more intense.
Port activity rebounded.
Port of LA Total TEUs
Port volume rebounded after March and came in above last year.
Takeaways
What this means for supply chain teams
Momentum modestly improved
Shipments improved slightly, Port of LA volume rebounded, and manufacturing remained in expansion.
Cost-to-serve still matters
Spend is higher even though shipment activity remains below last year.
Budget pressure remains
Fuel, truckload pricing, warehousing, and input prices are all higher YoY.
Manufacturing is mixed
PMI is stronger than last year, but input price pressure is higher.
How to read this
Near-term changes show momentum. Year-over-year changes show whether the market is structurally better, worse, or more expensive than last year. Read them together.
So what: putting this into action
- Hunt for cost synergies in your tech stack. With cost-to-serve elevated year-over-year, consolidating overlapping TMS, WMS, and visibility tools is one of the fastest ways to take cost out. A quick stack assessment usually surfaces two to three overlaps teams didn't realize they had.
- Lean into automation where labor and warehousing are higher. Warehouse robotics, dock scheduling, and document automation continue to be the clearest wins when warehousing and labor costs keep climbing.
- Use AI to make better decisions on the data you already have. AI-assisted planning, exception management, and rate benchmarking help teams react faster to the kind of mixed signals shown above, without adding headcount.
- Close connectivity gaps across carriers, suppliers, and systems. Real-time visibility and EDI/API connectivity reduce the surprises that turn modest near-term momentum into missed service levels.
- Pressure-test the shortlist before you commit. Benchmark vendors, run a structured RFP, and pull in an independent expert before signing. SupplyWolf is built to make each of those steps faster.
You can get help with all of this on SupplyWolf to compare vetted solutions, assess your tech stack, run RFPs, and talk to supply chain experts, all in one place.
Why this uses latest available data
Many freight and economic indicators are released monthly and may be revised. This SupplyWolf Market Pulse uses the latest publicly available data as of May 19, 2026. The goal is to show both near-term momentum and year-over-year context, not real-time market conditions.
Sources
- · FRED / Cass Freight Index
- · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED
- · U.S. Energy Information Administration
- · Institute for Supply Management
- · Port of Los Angeles
For informational purposes only. Data may be revised. SupplyWolf does not own the underlying publicly available data. Graphics are original SupplyWolf visualizations based on cited sources. Do not copy or screenshot outside charts. Use original SupplyWolf visuals built from cited numbers.
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SupplyWolf Market Pulse
Near-Term Move + Year-over-Year Reality
Short-term bounce. Long-term cost pressure.
Latest available public data as of May 19, 2026
Freight activity improved modestly near term, but year-over-year cost pressure is still the main story.
Shipments YoY
-4.4%
Freight Spend YoY
+3.5%
Truckload PPI YoY
+20.0%
Warehousing YoY
+4.0%
Diesel YoY
+62.2%
ISM PMI YoY
+8.2%
Bottom line
Momentum improved month-over-month, but YoY cost pressure remains.
SupplyWolfA small near-term lift in shipments
Cass Freight Shipments
Why it matters
Shipments are a leading read on goods demand. The YoY drop signals demand hasn't recovered, even with a slight near-term lift.
SupplyWolfSpend moved higher
Cass Freight Expenditures
Why it matters
Spend rising while shipments lag means cost-per-shipment is climbing. That is a direct hit to freight budgets and vendor negotiations.
SupplyWolfThe core tension
- Shipments YoY-4.4%
- Freight Spend YoY+3.5%
Year-over-year, it costs more to ship less.
Bottom line
Cost-to-serve is the story.
Volume is down while spend is up, so each shipment costs more. Build budgets and vendor terms off that gap, not the headline rate.
SupplyWolfCost pressure is broad
- Truckload PPI+20.0% YoY
- Warehousing PPI+4.0% YoY
- Diesel+62.2% YoY
Why it matters
Trucking, warehousing, and diesel are the largest cost inputs in moving goods. All three rising YoY mean cost-to-serve is structurally higher.
SupplyWolfManufacturing held steady MoM, but prices jumped
ISM Manufacturing PMI
52.7 · Flat MoM
+4.0 pts YoY (+8.2%)
ISM Prices Index
84.6 · +6.3 pts MoM (+8.0%)
+14.8 pts YoY (+21.2%)
Why it matters
PMI above 50 means factories are still growing. Sharp input-price jumps flow into finished-goods costs within one to two quarters.
SupplyWolfThe bottom line
Near-term momentum improved, but year-over-year the market is shipping less and paying more.
Cost-to-serve is structurally higher than last year, with truckload, warehousing, and diesel all elevated.
Plan budgets and vendor terms around the YoY reality, not the monthly bounce. Manufacturing input prices suggest more pass-through cost in the next one to two quarters.
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Sources: FRED, Cass Freight Index, BLS, EIA, ISM, Port of Los Angeles. Data may be revised.
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